:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.  Region 989 (S11W80) remains
spotless.  No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels due to
the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar
wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 526 km/sec to a peak
of 763 km/sec at 06/0858Z.  Bz reached a minimum of -5.3 nT at
05/2257Z.  The greater than 2MeV electron flux reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes on day one (07 April), due to the
continued effects from the high speed stream.  Conditions are
expected to become mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods, on days two and three (08-09 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 069
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  009/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  010/015-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05