:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Aug 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (15-17 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
initially at high levels but dropped below threshold at 14/0240Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (15-16 August). A small
increase to quiet to unsettled is expected for the third day (17
August) in response to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 066
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05