:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Mar 13 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately unsettled to active
levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed at 13/0300Z.
This activity was in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind velocity at ACE increased to 550 km/s.
Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +15 to -11 nt.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately unsettled on day one (14 March).
Predominately quiet conditions are expected on days two and three
(15 - 16 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 068
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01