:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N20E64) produced a
C4 flare at 14/1204Z. Region 1046 (N24W23) produced an isolated
B-class flare. Region 1046 was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are likely. There is also a chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1046 and 1048.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period (15 -
17 February) with a chance for minor storm levels. A CME is expected
to impact the field on 15 February. A recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 16 - 17
February.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 089
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  086/084/084
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/012-018/018-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/10