:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 04 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of
one C-class flare, a C3/Sf at 1629Z, as well as a few low-level
B-class flares. The C-flare was produced by newly numbered Region
1069 (N42W27) which emerged during the past 24 hours and became the
primary activity center on the disk. A weak wave/dimming event near
S29W00 was observed in SOHO EIT images at about 0700Z and was
associated with a faint CME.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional isolated C-class flares are likely if the current growth
trend in 1069 continues.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled with some isolated
active periods as well as some isolated storm level activity at high
latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of a
high speed solar wind stream, although the speeds were generally
decreasing with values around 600 km/s at the end of the analysis
interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period
for the first day (05 May) due to persistence. Activity levels are
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (06 May) and
mostly quiet for the third day (07 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 082
Predicted   05 May-07 May  084/086/086
90 Day Mean        04 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  019/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01