:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.  Only low-level B-class activity was noted, all from
Region 1069 as it rotated off the disk at N41.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, all three days of the forecast period (11 -
13 May).  The anticipated increase in activity levels is due to a
series of coronal hole high speed wind streams, located in both
solar hemispheres, that will become geoeffective through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 074
Predicted   11 May-13 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        10 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  008/008-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01