:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 11 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A solar
sector boundary crossing from negative (toward) to positive (away)
was evident in ACE SWEPAM signatures at about 11/0130Z.  Shortly
afterwards, solar wind velocity gradually increased from about 350
km/s to near 400 km/s by 0600Z, while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field turned southward (-5 nT).  These
signatures were consistent with a co-rotating interaction region in
advance of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, all three days of the forecast period (12 - 14 May).  This
activity is due to a series of coronal hole high speed wind streams
that are located in both solar hemispheres.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 074
Predicted   12 May-14 May  074/073/073
90 Day Mean        11 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01