:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 21 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 1072 (S16E14)
was numbered early in the period today and is a beta magnetic
configuration.  No flares were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions reported at 21/0300Z.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show a gradual decline in solar wind velocity from around
460 km/s to 420 km/s through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 May 071
Predicted   22 May-24 May  072/072/074
90 Day Mean        21 May 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01