:Product: 0721RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 Jul 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of numerous B-class events from Region 1087 (N18W85) and Region 1089 (S24E46). The largest events were a B8 at 1437Z from 1087 and a B8 at 1851Z From Region 1089. There has been a general increase in background solar flux levels. Region 1089 grew steadily during the past 24 hours and is a moderate sized D-type sunspot group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1089. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary was observed at the ACE spacecraft around 0200Z as the interplanetary magnetic field transitioned from a negative (inward) orientation to a positive (outward) orientation. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 July) and predominantly unsettled for the second and third days (23-24 July). The increase is expected as a response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jul 089 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 075 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/007-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/20/20 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/25/25 Minor storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05