:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A 12 degree long filament,
centered at N24W68, erupted and was observed by ground-based
observers and in SDO/AIA 171 imagery lifting off the disk at
14/1449Z. Simultaneously, a long duration C2.3/Sf flare was observed
in Region 1133 (N15W61) at 14/1550Z.  An associated CME, visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was seen lifting off the northwest limb at
14/1536Z.  The CME did not appear to be earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event all three
days (15-17 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high
speed stream continued to influence the magnetosphere.  Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 450 km/s at the beginning of
the period to approximately 650 km/s at forecast time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected be quiet to unsettled for days 1 and 2 (15-16 December) due
to the continued influence of coronal hole high speed streams.  Day
3 (17 December) is expected to bring a return to quiet conditions as
the influence of coronal hole high speed streams wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 090
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  088/088/086
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  007/007-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01