:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions across
all latitudes. The activity was the result of sporadic polarity
shifts accompanied  by a period of extended southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled days 1-2 (4-5 January) as
fluctuating polarity is expected to continue prior to a forecasted
solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day 2. On day 3 (6
January), the onset of a coronal high speed steam (CH HSS) is
expected to produce unsettled and active conditions with a minor
storm possible at onset.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 135
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  007/008-007/008-011/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/50
Minor storm           05/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           20/20/50
Major-severe storm    05/05/10