:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A long duration C2 x-ray event
began at 12/0754Z, peaked at 12/1001Z, and then persisted until
12/1216Z. It is believed that the source of the event was from
beyond the East limb. A limb event CME was observed by LASCO C2/C3
and also by the STEREO coronagraphs. The event is not believed to
have a geoeffective potential.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (13-15 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on days
1-2 (13-14 January) due to coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS)
effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels for day 3
(15 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 117
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01