:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N19W79) produced
several C-class x-ray events over the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels on day 1 (8 February). Activity
should decrease to very low levels on days 2-3 (9-10 February) after
Region 1410 rotates off the west limb of the solar disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes with an
isolated minor storm observed between 07/09-15Z at a high latitude
station in College, Alaska.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 February)
as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent
periods of negative Bz. Unsettled to active levels are again
expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on
days 2-3 (9-10 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    30/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 107
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  008/005-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/05