:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W45) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare that
peaked at 05/2110Z.  SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial halo
CME at 05/2125Z.   Associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were
also observed with an estimated shock speed for the Type II of 360
km/s.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected for the next three days (07-09 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (07 April). Unsettled levels are
expected on days two and three (08-09 April) with a chance for
isolated active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the CME
from Region 1450 and the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 
The latest model run shows the CME to be potentially geoeffective
with an estimated speed of 845 km/s and is expected to arrive late
on the 08th/early on the 09th of April.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 097
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  105/105/110
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  006/005-007/010-013/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/25