:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1521 (S21W47) produced an M1/1f x-ray event at
0458Z.  As well as being partially responsible for todays M-class
flare, Region 1520 (S17W35) also produced a C2/Sf event at 1410Z
with an associated 150 sfu Tenflare. Elsewhere on the solar disk,
Region 1519 (S16W56) and Region 1523 (S28E04) grew both in area and
magnetic complexity, however, both have remained quiet and stable.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (15-17 July) as
Region 1520 and Region 1521 continue to evolve.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels until around
1811Z, when a sudden impulse of 27 nT was observed by the Boulder
magnetometer. 43 minutes earlier, at 1728Z, measurements made by the
ACE spacecraft indicated a shock arrival. Solar wind speeds
increased from 350 km/s to around 630 km/s and the IMF (total field)
increased from 4 nT to around 17 nT, with extended periods of the Bz
component hovering around -12 nT. All of these signatures are
congruent with the arrival of a CME at ACE and later here at Earth.
After the arrival of the CME, an increase from quiet to minor storm
levels was observed. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began, 
reached a peak of 96 pfu at 12/2225Z, and is still in progress. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for
minor storms on day one (15 July), as CME effects continue.
Predominantly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (16-17
July).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/50/20
PCAF       red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 148
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/130/120
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  015/022-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/05
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    25/20/05