:Product: 0721RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Jul 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The four numbered sunspot regions remained stable and quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (22-24 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated speeds above nominal levels ranging from 400-520 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event observed at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/1715Z ended early in the period at 21/0310Z. Peak flux levels observed with this event were 136 pfu at 18/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods for the next three days (22-24 July) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jul 090 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 008/010-011/015-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 30/35/35 Major-severe storm 35/35/35