:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Two C-class events were
observed from Region 1542 (S16E24); the largest was a C4/Sf at
10/0416Z.  Region 1544 (S29W20) also produced a C2/Sf flare at
10/1740Z.  Region 1543 (N21E33) was the largest region on the disk
and produced some B-class events during the period.  The remaining
regions were quiet and stable, with no significant changes since
yesterday.  No earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1542.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft remained near 350 km/s and the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly neutral.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for an isolated active period for days 1 and 2 (11-12 August).  This
elevated activity is expected in response to the arrival of a
corotating interaction region and coronal hole, coupled with two
filaments that lifted off on 07 and 08 August.  On day 3 (13 August)
conditions are expected to return to quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 125
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-010/010-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/05