:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N04E09), 1563
(S24E58) and newly numbered 1564 (S13E70) each produced low-level C
flares during the period. Region 1564 rotated around the east limb
overnight and is considered a Dao-beta spot group. Region 1560 grew
in areal coverage and became more magnetically complex with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C8 flare associated with a
large filament eruption near S06E20 occurred at 31/2043Z associated
with Type II (estimated speed 515 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A
CME first became visible on SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately
1945Z. Further evaluation will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery
becomes available.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period
(01-03 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next three days (01-03 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 131
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05