:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 18/1641Z. Total IMF reached 34
nT at 18/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
18/1314Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (20 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 135
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  015/020-015/022-018/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/40