:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speeds measured at the
ACE spacecraft indicate a gradual increase in velocity.  As the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream approaches, speeds have
increased from about 285 km/s to around 350 km/s over the last 24
hours.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions for 15 September due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
September, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 17 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 067
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/015-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01