:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the
disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels.  There is a chance for isolated
C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet.  A brief period of
unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z
and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 - 25
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 069
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01