:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Apr 13 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocity at
ACE showed a steady declining trend with day-end values around 380
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (14-16 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 068
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01