:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Todays activity
consisted of two C-class events both from Region 1035 (N30W18), the
first a C5/Sf at 0124Z and the second a C3 at 1302Z.  A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was associated with the C5 event.  Region 1035 has
not shown significant growth during the past 24 hours.  However,
there does appear to be a small delta magnetic configuration in the
central portion of the region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the next three days (17-19 December). 
(The partial halo CME discussed in Part 1A, above, is expected to
arrive on day 4 and increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled to
active levels).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 083
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01