:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1045 (N23W26)
produced a M1/Sn event at 08/2123Z.  This region has shown a slight
decay today but continues to maintain its magnetic beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for a X-class event from Region
1045.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (10-12 February).  Activity is forecast due to the
recent CME activity from Region 1045.  Late on 11 February into 12
February there is a slight chance for isolated periods of minor
levels due to the full halo CME observed on 06 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    50/30/20
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 091
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/009-010/011-012/013
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05