:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class flares
occurred during the period. New Region 1049 (S19E02) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during days 1 - 2 (18 - 19 February). Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (20 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 087
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  088/088/086
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01