:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 25 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Regions 1050 (S19W40) and 1051 (N16E54) were quiet and stable
Bxo/Beta groups. SOHO/LASCO images showed a faint, slow CME from the
southeast quadrant late yesterday (estimated plane of sky velocity
348 km/sec). No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for
C-class flares beginning on day 3 (28 February) due to the expected
return of old Region 1045 (N19, L=251).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to  be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (26 - 27
February). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (28 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. The CME mentioned above is not expected to
disturb the field during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 083
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  082/080/082
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  005/005-005/006-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01