:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 12 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 12/1827Z
from Region 1054 (N15E29). Region 1054 continues to show a slow
growth trend. Region 1055 (S24W27) was quiet and mostly unchanged
during the past 24 hours. A CME was observed on the east limb at
about 11/2330Z and appeared to be associated with the eruption of a
filament in the northeast quadrant.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled at mid-latitudes,
with one active period at some stations from 0300-0600Z. The high
latitudes observed quiet to active levels with some isolated storm
periods between 0300-0600Z, and from 1200-1500Z. Solar wind
velocities remained elevated through the period, generally ranging
between 500-580 km/s. There appeared to be a decreasing trend during
the last 4 hours of the period, with day-end speed values around 480
km/s. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed
stream from the southward extension of the northern polar coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (13 March) due to persistence. Quiet to
unsettled levels (with a chance for active periods) are expected on
days two and three (14-15 March) due to possible effects from a
recurrent solar sector boundary.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 090
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  092/094/095
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/010-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05