:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 05 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1069 (N41W40) produced an M1/Sf flare at 05/1719Z and a C8 flare at
05/1152Z, as well as occasional lesser B- and C-class flares. Region
1069 gradually increased in area and maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 1066 (S26W22) produced a B4 flare at
05/1618Z associated with an EIT-wave/dimming event. New Region 1070
(N21W08), a small simple B-type spot group, was assigned late in the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (06 - 08 May) with a chance for isolated M-class
flares from Region 1069.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within
a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Velocities gradually
decreased from 620 to 538 km/sec during the summary period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (06 - 07
May) as the coronal hole high-speed stream continues to subside.
Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3
(08 May) in response to the B4 wave/dimming event mentioned above.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 083
Predicted   06 May-08 May  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        05 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01