:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 12 2145 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Two low level B-class flares were observed. The visible
disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with a peak velocity of 500 km/s at
12/0740 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next two days (13-14 May). This elevated activity is
due to a series of coronal hole high-speed streams moving into
geoeffective positions. On day three (15 May), quiet levels are
expected as the effects of these high speed solar wind streams
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 071
Predicted   13 May-15 May  071/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01