:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No flares were
observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (18-20 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days one and two (18-19 May), and quiet
to unsettled on day three (20 May) of the period. The increase is
forecast due to the possible onset of a recurrent high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 069
Predicted   18 May-20 May  070/072/072
90 Day Mean        17 May 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  005/006-005/006-008/013
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01