:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 1082 (N28E33)
produced a B5/Sf x-ray event at 17/1023Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (18-20 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a few isolated
periods of active conditions at mid latitudes. Solar wind speeds
remain near 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated
period of active conditions on day 1 (18 June).  Conditions are
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 2 and 3 (19-20 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 070
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/30
Minor storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01