:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few B-class flares, including a B9 at 2138Z and a B9 at 1523Z,
both from Region 1089 (S24E20). Region 1089 continues to slowly
decay and simplify.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1089.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE
spacecraft indicate elevated density during the last 4 hours of the
period, consistent with a co-rotating interaction region.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the first day (24 July) in response to
a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the 2nd and 3rd days (25-26 July) due to persistent
effects from the coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 086
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  083/081/080
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  010/010-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05