:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1121 (S18E36)
produced a C5/1F at 07/0141Z. Region 1121 was classified as an Esi
spot group, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions
were numbered. A small, faint earth-directed CME was observed on
both STEREO A and B coronagraph imagery, beginning at 07/0410Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, on days one and two (08-09 November).
Quiet levels are expected on day three (10 November). Further
analysis will be required to determine if the CME observed earlier
will be geoeffective. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10
MeV proton event from Region 1121.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 085
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  087/090/090
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  007/008-006/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/09/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/03/01