:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed throughout the period,
the largest being a C4.7/Sf from Region 1123 (S22E03) at 11/0724Z.
Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions at 245 MHz
and a partial-halo CME observed in LASCO imagery at 11/0824Z and
STEREO A at 11/0809Z. New Region 1125 (N19E34) was numbered early in
the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(12-14 November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. At
about 11/0200Z, signatures at the ACE satellite indicated an
increase in temperature, density and wind velocity. The Bz component
of the interplanetary field (IMF) occasionally turned southward
reaching a maximum deflection of -9 nT at 11/1208Z. The Bt component
of the IMF reached a maximum of 12 nT at 11/0304Z. These
disturbances are believed to be the result of a slow moving CME.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(12-14 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 085
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  085/085/084
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  007/010-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01