:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1135 (N19E02)
produced low level B-class flares during the period and is
classified as an Axx spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  Unsettled conditions were
observed at mid-latitudes for the 17/0300Z reporting period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(18-19 December) due to effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day three (20
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 082
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  080/080/078
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  007/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01