:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1391 (N12W12), 1393
(N15W57), and 1395 (N22E45) produced low level C-class flares. 
Possible umbral separation was observed in the leading spot of
Region 1391 and the trailing spot of Region 1393.  Both regions have
Beta-Gamma magnetic classifications.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1391
and 1393.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated around 420 - 440 km/s
with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (10 - 11 January).  A
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective
position on day 3 (12 January) causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 142
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  004/005-004/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/20