:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W19) produced
the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 14/0031Z.  An
Earth-directed, partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0130Z with an
estimated plane-of-sky speed of 436 km/s. An additional
Earth-directed, partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1325Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 606 km/s. This CME was associated with a C2
flare at 13/1240Z with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps from Region 1543.  Region 1543 showed
little change and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. 
The remaining spotted regions were stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 August).  Quiet to
unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are
expected on Day 2 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August CME.
Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 3 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 106
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-007/010-009/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/15