:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1543 (N22W48) produced
a C3 flare at 16/1316Z.  This flare was accompanied by Type II (704
km/s) and Type IV radio emissions and a coronal mass ejection (CME).
The CME was first visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 16/1409Z and
was estimated to be moving at around 330 km/s.  Analysis is underway
to determine if it will be geoeffective.  Region 1543 ended the
period as an Hhx group with alpha magnetic characteristics.  New
Region 1546 (N16E69) was numbered today as a simple Hsx group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (17-19 August).  There is a slight chance
for an M-class flare on day 3 (19 August) as old Region 1532 (S16,
L=185) returns.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the period.  A weak impulse was indicated at several geomagnetic
observatories at around 16/1321Z.  Earlier, around 13/1223Z, the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field at the ACE spacecraft
turned southward to approximately -6 nT.  It remained mostly
southward for the remainder of the period.  The shift in Bz and the
subsequent impulse at earth were consistent with the arrival of the
CME from 13 August.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(17-20 August), with a chance for active levels.  The disturbed
conditions on days 1-2 (17-18 August) are expected with the arrival
of the CME from 14 August.  The disturbed conditions on day 3 (19
August) are expected with the arrival of a positive coronal hole
high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 098
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  100/095/090
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  010/012-009/012-011/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/05/25