:Product: 0624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/1529Z from Region 2371 (N11W40). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
778 km/s at 24/1415Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/1320Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2329Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 30 pfu at
24/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 26376 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active levels on day one (25 Jun) and quiet levels on days two
and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (25 Jun), are likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Jun) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     80/60/40
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 110
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  047/078
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  017/025-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/35/10