:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 09 2215 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (11 Sep) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 09/2100Z. Total IMF reached
10.5 nT at 09/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.9
nT at 09/1344Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3370 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Sep,
11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 109
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 109/109/112
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  010/010-008/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/30/20